The likelihood of temporarily reaching 1.5C in heating increases, says the WMO


According to the World Meteorological Organization, the likelihood of global warming temporarily reaching the 1.5C mark in the next five years has increased to more than 40 percent after new surveillance data from the Arctic.

The latest annual report, led by the UK Met office, predicted an increase in average global temperature by 1.5 ° C as pre-industrial times were likely in at least one of the next five years, and could grows up to 1.8 ° C.

The likelihood that global land and sea temperatures will warm to those levels in the years to 2025 was “increasing over time,” he said. The forecast combined reports from Spain, Germany, Canada, China, USA, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

The forecast that would see the threshold, at which scientists warn that there will be catastrophic consequences, should follow a move last week by the group of G7 countries to restrict their target to limit global warming to 1.5C, from a previous purpose of 2C.

This goal refers to the consistent increase in temperatures in the long run, rather than warming in an individual year.

The 2015 Paris agreement commits signatories to limit warming to “well below” 2C as a red line, with the preferred limit of 1.5C, in an effort to minimize the risk of increasingly extreme weather. and natural disasters.

“Having individual years above 1.5C above the historical average does not mean that the Paris target has been breached, but this is an unmistakable warning sign that the door will be closed if governments make the wrong choices,” he said. said Richard Black, senior associate in the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.

The Met Office said the possibility of temporarily reaching 1.5C was “approximately doubled compared to last year’s forecasts” due to better monitoring data for the Arctic, which was heating up at a particularly rapid pace. , and more accurate marine measurements.

Gail Whiteman, founder of the Arctic base camp and professor of sustainability at the University of Exeter’s business school, said the Arctic is warming nearly three times as fast as the globe at all.

This was exacerbating sea level rise, and worsening global warming as well as extreme weather events.

The Met Office said there was a 90 percent chance that at least one year in the next five would become the hottest on record, surpassing what came in 2016.

Last year, the global average temperature was 1.2C warmer than pre-industrial levels, according to the WMO.

Average global land and sea temperatures have risen steadily since the 1960s, with 2016-20 the warmest since records began in 1850, according to the Met Office. When the climate changes, parts of Europe and North America are likely to become drier, while precipitation could increase in the Sahel region of Africa and Australia.

Adam Scaife, head of the ten-year seasonal forecast at the Met Office, warned that the assessment of rising global temperatures in the context of climate change “refers to the global long-term average temperature, not to averages for individual years or months ”.

“However, a temporary exceedance of the 1.5C level can already be seen in the coming years,” he added.

The meteorological service said it was “highly unlikely” that the average annual global temperature for five years for the period 2021 to 2025 would be 1.5C warmer than the average for the period 1850-1900.

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